Final report.bib

%% This BibTeX bibliography file was created using BibDesk.
%% http://bibdesk.sourceforge.net/


%% Created for Chris Lee at 2014-04-08 15:15:24 -0400 


%% Saved with string encoding Unicode (UTF-8) 

@article{raftery,
author = {Kass, Robert E. and Raftery, Adrian E.},
title = {Bayes Factors},
journal = {Journal of the American Statistical Association},
volume = {90},
number = {430},
pages = {773-795},
year = {1995},
URL = {http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572},
eprint = {http://amstat.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/01621459.1995.10476572}
}

@article{Burnham04,
author = {Burnham, Kenneth P. and Anderson, David R.}, 
title = {Multimodel Inference: Understanding AIC and BIC in Model Selection},
volume = {33}, 
number = {2}, 
pages = {261-304}, 
year = {2004}, 
doi = {10.1177/0049124104268644}, 
abstract ={The model selection literature has been generally poor at reflecting the deep foundations of the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and at making appropriate comparisons to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). There is a clear philosophy, a sound criterion based in information theory, and a rigorous statistical foundation for AIC. AIC can be justified as Bayesian using a “savvy” prior on models that is a function of sample size and the number of model parameters. Furthermore, BIC can be derived as a non-Bayesian result. Therefore, arguments about using AIC versus BIC for model selection cannot be from a Bayes versus frequentist perspective. The philosophical context of what is assumed about reality, approximating models, and the intent of model-based inference should determine whether AIC or BIC is used. Various facets of such multimodel inference are presented here, particularly methods of model averaging.}, 
URL = {http://smr.sagepub.com/content/33/2/261.abstract}, 
eprint = {http://smr.sagepub.com/content/33/2/261.full.pdf+html}, 
journal = {Sociological Methods & Research} 
}

@article{forecast13,
	Author = {Deepak Pathaka, David Rothschild, Miroslav Dudik},
	Date-Added = {2014-04-08 19:10:01 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-04-08 19:15:07 +0000},
	Journal = {Manuscript submitted for publication},
	Title = {A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts},
	Year = {2013}}

@book{davison97,
	Address = {Cambridge},
	Author = {Davison, A.C. & Hinkley, D. V.},
	Date-Added = {2014-04-07 00:52:57 +0000},
	Date-Modified = {2014-04-07 00:54:58 +0000},
	Editor = {Cambridge University Press},
	Series = {ISBN 0-521-57391-2},
	Title = {Bootstrap Methods and Their Applications},
	Year = {1997}}

@article{hsieh98,
	Author = {Hsieh, F. Y. and Bloch, Daniel A. and Larsen, Michael D.},
	Doi = {10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19980730)17:14<1623::AID-SIM871>3.0.CO;2-S},
	Issn = {1097-0258},
	Journal = {Statistics in Medicine},
	Number = {14},
	Pages = {1623--1634},
	Publisher = {Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company},
	Title = {A simple method of sample size calculation for linear and logistic regression},
	Volume = {17},
	Year = {1998},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0258(19980730)17:14%3C1623::AID-SIM871%3E3.0.CO;2-S}}

@article{pardoe08,
	Author = {Pardoe, Iain and Simonton, Dean K.},
	Doi = {10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00518.x},
	Issn = {1467-985X},
	Journal = {Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)},
	Keywords = {Bayesian, Conditional logit, Films, Forecasting, Mixed logit, Motion pictures, Movies, Multinomial logit},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {375--394},
	Publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd},
	Title = {Applying discrete choice models to predict Academy Award winners},
	Volume = {171},
	Year = {2008},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2007.00518.x}}

@article{krauss08,
	Author = {Krauss, J. and Nann, S. and Simon, D. and Fischbach, K. and Gloor, P.},
	Journal = {ECIS 2008 Proceedings},
	Number = {Paper 116},
	Title = {Predicting movie success and academy awards through sentiment and social network analysis},
	Url = {http://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2008/116},
	Year = {2008},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://aisel.aisnet.org/ecis2008/116}}

@article{ghomi13,
	Author = {Ghomi, A. and Shirzadi, E. and Movassaghi, A.},
	Journal = {Global Journal of Science, Engineering and Technology},
	Pages = {39-47},
	Publisher = {GJSET Publishing, 2013},
	Title = {Predicting the academy awards result by analyzing tweets},
	Volume = {8},
	Year = {2013}}

@article{bernard05,
	Author = {Bernard, A},
	Journal = {Unpublished paper},
	Title = {An index of oscar-worthiness: predicting the academy award for best picture},
	Url = {mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/andrew.bernard/oscars.pdf‎},
	Year = {2005},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {mba.tuck.dartmouth.edu/pages/faculty/andrew.bernard/oscars.pdf%E2%80%8E}}

@article{litman83,
	Author = {Litman, Barry R.},
	Doi = {10.1111/j.0022-3840.1983.1604_159.x},
	Issn = {1540-5931},
	Journal = {The Journal of Popular Culture},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {159--175},
	Publisher = {Blackwell Publishing Ltd.},
	Title = {Predicting success of theatrical movies: an empirical study},
	Volume = {16},
	Year = {1983},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-3840.1983.1604_159.x}}

@article{collins06,
	Author = {Collins, Alan and Hand, Chris},
	Doi = {10.1207/s15326934crj1804_2},
	Journal = {Creativity Research Journal},
	Number = {4},
	Pages = {427-434},
	Title = {Vote clustering in tournaments: what can oscar tell us?},
	Volume = {18},
	Year = {2006},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1207/s15326934crj1804_2}}

@article{silver13,
	Author = {Silver, Nate},
	Journal = {fivethirtyeight.com},
	Title = {Oscar predictions, election-style},
	Url = {http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/},
	Year = {2013},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/02/22/oscar-predictions-election-style/}}

@article{simonton04,
	Author = {Simonton, D.K.},
	Journal = {Creativity Research Journal},
	Number = {2-3},
	Pages = {163-172},
	Title = {Film awards as indicators of cinematic creativity and achievement: a quantitative comparison of the Oscars and six alternatives},
	Url = {http://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kp6d661},
	Volume = {16},
	Year = {2004},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://escholarship.org/uc/item/6kp6d661}}

@article{austin04,
	Abstract = {Researchers frequently use automated model selection methods such as backwards elimination to identify variables that are independent predictors of an outcome under consideration. We propose using bootstrap resampling in conjunction with automated variable selection methods to develop parsimonious prediction models. Using data on patients admitted to hospital with a heart attack, we demonstrate that selecting those variables that were identified as independent predictors of mortality in at least 60% of the bootstrap samples resulted in a parsimonious model with excellent predictive ability.},
	Author = {Austin, Peter C. and Tu, Jack V.},
	Copyright = {Copyright {\copyright} 2004 American Statistical Association},
	Issn = {00031305},
	Journal = {The American Statistician},
	Jstor_Articletype = {research-article},
	Jstor_Formatteddate = {May, 2004},
	Language = {English},
	Number = {2},
	Pages = {pp. 131-137},
	Publisher = {American Statistical Association},
	Title = {Bootstrap Methods for Developing Predictive Models},
	Url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27643521},
	Volume = {58},
	Year = {2004},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/27643521}}

@article{steyerberg01,
	Author = {Ewout W Steyerberg and Frank E Harrell Jr and Gerard J.J.M Borsboom and M.J.C Eijkemans and Yvonne Vergouwe and J.Dik F Habbema},
	Doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00341-9},
	Issn = {0895-4356},
	Journal = {Journal of Clinical Epidemiology},
	Keywords = {Bootstrapping},
	Number = {8},
	Pages = {774 - 781},
	Title = {Internal validation of predictive models: Efficiency of some procedures for logistic regression analysis},
	Url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0895435601003419},
	Volume = {54},
	Year = {2001},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0895435601003419},
	Bdsk-Url-2 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0895-4356(01)00341-9}}

@manual{epicalc,
	Author = {Virasakdi Chongsuvivatwong},
	Note = {R package version 2.15.1.0},
	Title = {epicalc: Epidemiological calculator},
	Url = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=epicalc},
	Year = {2012},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=epicalc}}

@book{MASS,
	Address = {New York},
	Author = {W. N. Venables and B. D. Ripley},
	Edition = {Fourth},
	Note = {ISBN 0-387-95457-0},
	Publisher = {Springer},
	Title = {Modern Applied Statistics with S},
	Url = {http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/MASS4},
	Year = {2002},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/pub/MASS4}}

@manual{stargazer,
	Address = {Cambridge, USA},
	Author = {Marek Hlavac},
	Note = {R package version 4.5.3},
	Organization = {Harvard University},
	Title = {stargazer: LaTeX code and ASCII text for well-formatted regression and summary statistics tables},
	Url = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stargazer},
	Year = {2013},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=stargazer}}

@book{harell03,
	Address = {New York},
	Author = {Frank E. Harrell},
	Date-Modified = {2014-04-07 01:41:26 +0000},
	Doi = {10.1002/sim.1497},
	Edition = {2},
	Issn = {1097-0258},
	Journal = {Statistics in Medicine},
	Publisher = {John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.},
	Series = {Springer Series in Statistics},
	Title = {Regression Modeling Strategies with Applications to Linear Models, Logistic Regression and Survival Analysis},
	Url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.1497},
	Year = {2003},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sim.1497}}

@article{decision04,
	Acmid = {1014457},
	Address = {Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), Linthicum, Maryland, USA},
	Author = {Gehrlein, William V. and Kher, Hemant V.},
	Doi = {10.1287/inte.1040.0072},
	Issn = {0092-2102},
	Issue_Date = {June 2004},
	Journal = {Interfaces},
	Keywords = {Committees, Games, Group decisions, Voting},
	Month = jun,
	Number = {3},
	Numpages = {9},
	Pages = {226--234},
	Publisher = {INFORMS},
	Title = {Decision Rules for the Academy Awards Versus Those for Elections},
	Url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1040.0072},
	Volume = {34},
	Year = {2004},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/inte.1040.0072}}

@manual{caret,
	Author = {Max Kuhn},
	Note = {R package version 6.0-24},
	Title = {caret: Classification and Regression Training},
	Url = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caret},
	Year = {2014},
	Bdsk-Url-1 = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=caret}}

@Manual{,
    title = {MuMIn: Multi-model inference},
    author = {Kamil Bartoń},
    year = {2013},
    note = {R package version 1.9.13},
    url = {http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MuMIn},
  }