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documented confidence.py
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AlexMoreo committed Nov 29, 2024
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193 changes: 160 additions & 33 deletions quapy/method/confidence.py
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
@@ -1,51 +1,108 @@
from functools import cached_property
import numpy as np
import quapy as qp
import quapy.functional as F
from quapy.data import LabelledCollection
from quapy.method.aggregative import AggregativeQuantifier
from scipy.stats import chi2
from scipy.special import gamma
from sklearn.utils import resample
from abc import ABC, abstractmethod
from scipy.special import softmax, factorial
import copy
from functools import lru_cache


"""
This module provides implementation of different types of confidence regions, and the implementation of Bootstrap
for AggregativeQuantifiers.
"""

class ConfidenceRegionABC(ABC):
"""
Abstract class of confidence regions
"""

@abstractmethod
def point_estimate(self) -> np.ndarray:
"""
Returns the point estimate corresponding to a set of bootstrap estimates.
:return: np.ndarray
"""
...

def ndim(self):
def ndim(self) -> int:
"""
Number of dimensions of the region. This number corresponds to the total number of classes. The dimensionality
of the simplex is therefore ndim-1
:return: int
"""
return len(self.point_estimate())

@abstractmethod
def coverage(self, true_value):
def coverage(self, true_value) -> float:
"""
Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
:param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
:return: float in [0,1]
"""
...

@lru_cache
def simplex_portion(self):
"""
Computes the fraction of the simplex which is covered by the region. This is not the volume of the region
itself (which could lie outside the boundaries of the simplex), but the actual fraction of the simplex
contained in the region. A default implementation, based on Monte Carlo approximation, is provided.
:return: float, the fraction of the simplex covered by the region
"""
return self.montecarlo_proportion()

@lru_cache
def montecarlo_proportion(self, n_trials=10_000):
"""
Estimates, via a Monte Carlo approach, the fraction of the simplex covered by the region. This is carried
out by returning the fraction of the `n_trials` points, uniformly drawn at random from the simplex, that
are included in the region. The value is only computed once when multiple calls are made.
:return: float in [0,1]
"""
with qp.util.temp_seed(0):
uniform_simplex = F.uniform_simplex_sampling(n_classes=self.ndim(), size=n_trials)
proportion = np.clip(self.coverage(uniform_simplex), 0., 1.)
return proportion


class WithConfidenceABC(ABC):
"""
Abstract class for confidence regions.
"""

@abstractmethod
def quantify_conf(self, instances, confidence_level=None) -> (np.ndarray, ConfidenceRegionABC):
"""
Adds the method `quantify_conf` to the interface. This method returns not only the point-estimate, but
also the confidence region around it.
:param instances: a np.ndarray of shape (n_instances, n_features,)
:confidence_level: float in (0, 1)
:return: a tuple (`point_estimate`, `conf_region`), where `point_estimate` is a np.ndarray of shape
(n_classes,) and `conf_region` is an object from :class:`ConfidenceRegionABC`
"""
...


def simplex_volume(n):
"""
Computes the volume of the n-dimensional simplex. For n classes, the corresponding volume
is :meth:`simplex_volume(n-1)` since the simplex has one degree of freedom less.
:param n: int, the dimensionality of the simplex
:return: float, the volume of the n-dimensional simplex
"""
return 1 / factorial(n)


Expand All @@ -54,17 +111,16 @@ def within_ellipse_prop(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):
Checks the proportion of values that belong to the ellipse with center `mean` and precision matrix `prec_matrix`
at a distance `chi2_critical`.
:param values: a np.ndarray with shape (ndim,) or (n_values,ndim,)
:param mean: a np.ndarray with the mean of the sample
:param values: a np.ndarray of shape (n_dim,) or (n_values, n_dim,)
:param mean: a np.ndarray of shape (n_dim,) with the center of the ellipse
:param prec_matrix: a np.ndarray with the precision matrix (inverse of the
covariance matrix) of the sample. If this inverse cannot be computed
covariance matrix) of the ellipse. If this inverse cannot be computed
then None must be passed
:param chi2_critical: the chi2 critical value
:param chi2_critical: float, the chi2 critical value
:return: the fraction of values that are contained in the ellipse
defined by the mean, the precision matrix, and the chi2_critical.
If values is only one value, then either 0 (not contained) or
1 (contained) is returned.
:return: float in [0,1], the fraction of values that are contained in the ellipse
defined by the mean (center), the precision matrix (shape), and the chi2_critical value (distance).
If `values` is only one value, then either 0. (not contained) or 1. (contained) is returned.
"""
if prec_matrix is None:
return 0.
Expand All @@ -84,6 +140,12 @@ def within_ellipse_prop(values, mean, prec_matrix, chi2_critical):


class ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(ConfidenceRegionABC):
"""
Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the probability simplex.
:param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
:param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
"""

def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):

Expand All @@ -107,20 +169,32 @@ def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
self.chi2_critical_ = chi2.ppf(confidence_level, df=self.ddof)

def point_estimate(self):
"""
Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
:return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
"""
return self.mean_

def coverage(self, true_value):
"""
true_value can be an array (n_dimensions,) or a matrix (n_vectors, n_dimensions,)
confidence_level None means that the confidence_level is taken from the __init__
returns true or false depending on whether true_value is in the ellipse or not,
or returns the proportion of true_values that are within the ellipse if more
than one are passed
Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
:param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
:return: float in [0,1]
"""
return within_ellipse_prop(true_value, self.mean_, self.precision_matrix_, self.chi2_critical_)


class ConfidenceEllipseCLR(ConfidenceRegionABC):
"""
Instantiates a Confidence Ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) space.
:param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
:param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
"""

def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
self.clr = CLRtransformation()
Expand All @@ -129,26 +203,36 @@ def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
self.conf_region_clr = ConfidenceEllipseSimplex(Z, confidence_level=confidence_level)

def point_estimate(self):
# Z_mean = self.conf_region_clr.mean()
# return self.clr.inverse(Z_mean)
# the inverse of the CLR does not coincide with the clean mean because the geometric mean
# requires smoothing the prevalence vectors and this affects the softmax (inverse)
"""
Returns the point estimate, the center of the ellipse.
:return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
"""
# The inverse of the CLR does not coincide with the true mean, because the geometric mean
# requires smoothing the prevalence vectors and this affects the softmax (inverse);
# return self.clr.inverse(self.mean_) # <- does not coincide
return self.mean_

def coverage(self, true_value):
"""
true_value can be an array (n_dimensions,) or a matrix (n_vectors, n_dimensions,)
confidence_level None means that the confidence_level is taken from the __init__
returns true or false depending on whether true_value is in the ellipse or not,
or returns the proportion of true_values that are within the ellipse if more
than one are passed
Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
:param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
:return: float in [0,1]
"""
transformed_values = self.clr(true_value)
return self.conf_region_clr.coverage(transformed_values)


class ConfidenceIntervals(ConfidenceRegionABC):
"""
Instantiates a region based on (independent) Confidence Intervals.
:param X: np.ndarray of shape (n_bootstrap_samples, n_classes)
:param confidence_level: float, the confidence level (default 0.95)
"""
def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
assert 0 < confidence_level < 1, f'{confidence_level=} must be in range(0,1)'

Expand All @@ -158,14 +242,21 @@ def __init__(self, X, confidence_level=0.95):
self.I_low, self.I_high = np.percentile(X, q=[2.5, 97.5], axis=0)

def point_estimate(self):
"""
Returns the point estimate, the class-wise average of the bootstrapped estimates
:return: np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,)
"""
return self.means_

def coverage(self, true_value):
"""
true_value can be an array (n_dimensions,) or a matrix (n_vectors, n_dimensions,)
returns true or false depending on whether true_value is in the ellipse or not,
or returns the proportion of true_values that are within the ellipse if more
than one are passed
Checks whether a value, or a sets of values, are contained in the confidence region. The method computes the
fraction of these that are contained in the region, if more than one value is passed. If only one value is
passed, then it either returns 1.0 or 0.0, for indicating the value is in the region or not, respectively.
:param true_value: a np.ndarray of shape (n_classes,) or shape (n_values, n_classes,)
:return: float in [0,1]
"""
within_intervals = np.logical_and(self.I_low <= true_value, true_value <= self.I_high)
within_all_intervals = np.all(within_intervals, axis=-1, keepdims=True)
Expand All @@ -176,20 +267,56 @@ def coverage(self, true_value):

class CLRtransformation:
"""
Centered log-ratio
Centered log-ratio, from component analysis
"""

def __call__(self, X, epsilon=1e-6):
"""
Applies the CLR function to X thus mapping the instances, which are contained in `\\mathcal{R}^{n}` but
actually lie on a `\\mathcal{R}^{n-1}` simplex, onto an unrestricted space in :math:`\\mathcal{R}^{n}`
:param X: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
:param epsilon: small float for prevalence smoothing
:return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
"""
X = np.asarray(X)
X = qp.error.smooth(X, epsilon)
G = np.exp(np.mean(np.log(X), axis=-1, keepdims=True)) # geometric mean
return np.log(X / G)

def inverse(self, X):
"""
Inverse function. However, clr.inverse(clr(X)) does not exactly coincide with X due to smoothing.
:param X: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions) to be transformed
:return: np.ndarray of (n_instances, n_dimensions), the CLR-transformed points
"""
return softmax(X, axis=-1)


class AggregativeBootstrap(WithConfidenceABC, AggregativeQuantifier):
"""
Aggregative Bootstrap allows any AggregativeQuantifier to get confidence regions around
point-estimates of class prevalence values. This method implements some optimizations for
speeding up the computations, which are only possible due to the two phases of the aggregative
quantifiers.
During training, the bootstrap repetitions are only carried out over pre-classified training instances,
after the classifier has been trained (only once), in order to train a series of aggregation
functions (model-based approach).
During inference, the bootstrap repetitions are applied to the pre-classified test instances.
:param quantifier: an aggregative quantifier
:para n_train_samples: int, the number of training resamplings (defaults to 1, set to > 1 to activate a
model-based bootstrap approach)
:para n_test_samples: int, the number of test resamplings (defaults to 500, set to > 1 to activate a
population-based bootstrap approach)
:param confidence_level: float, the confidence level for the confidence region (default 0.95)
:param method: string, set to `intervals` for constructing confidence intervals (default), or to
`ellipse` for constructing an ellipse in the probability simplex, or to `ellipse-clr` for
constructing an ellipse in the Centered-Log Ratio (CLR) unconstrained space.
:param random_state: int for replicating samples, None (default) for non-replicable samples
"""

METHODS = ['intervals', 'ellipse', 'ellipse-clr']

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