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Climate_Projections/climate.html

@@ -204,8 +204,6 @@
 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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In_Situ/insitu.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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Reanalyses/reanalysis.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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Satellite_ECVs/satellite.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="../Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 current active has-children"><a class="current reference internal" href="#">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details open="open"><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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@@ -434,8 +432,6 @@ <h2>Available assessments<a class="headerlink" href="#available-assessments" tit
 <ul>
 <li class="toctree-l1"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l1"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
-<li class="toctree-l1"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications</a></li>
-<li class="toctree-l1"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html#quality-assessment-questions">Quality assessment questions</a></li>
 </ul>
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 </section>

Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 current active has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details open="open"><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul class="current">
 <li class="toctree-l2 current active"><a class="current reference internal" href="#">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 current active has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details open="open"><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul class="current">
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2 current active"><a class="current reference internal" href="#">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
-
-
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@@ -412,9 +410,8 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
             </div>
             <nav aria-label="Page">
                 <ul class="visible nav section-nav flex-column">
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications</a></li>
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-questions">Quality assessment questions</a><ul class="visible nav section-nav flex-column">
+<li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications</a></li>
+<li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-questions">Quality assessment questions</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-statement">Quality assessment statement</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#methodology">Methodology</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#analysis-and-results">Analysis and results</a><ul class="nav section-nav flex-column">
@@ -448,9 +445,6 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
 </ul>
 </li>
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-</li>
-</ul>
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@@ -466,12 +460,11 @@ <h2> Contents </h2>
 <h1>Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies<a class="headerlink" href="#evaluation-of-the-hit-rate-of-seasonal-forecasts-for-tercile-categories-of-monthly-anomalies" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h1>
 <p>Production date: 30/05/2024</p>
 <p>Produced by: Sandro Calmanti (ENEA), Alessandro Dell’Aquila (ENEA)</p>
+<section id="use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">
+<h2>Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications<a class="headerlink" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h2>
 </section>
-<section class="tex2jax_ignore mathjax_ignore" id="use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">
-<h1>Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications<a class="headerlink" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h1>
-</section>
-<section class="tex2jax_ignore mathjax_ignore" id="quality-assessment-questions">
-<h1>Quality assessment questions<a class="headerlink" href="#quality-assessment-questions" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h1>
+<section id="quality-assessment-questions">
+<h2>Quality assessment questions<a class="headerlink" href="#quality-assessment-questions" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h2>
 <ul class="simple">
 <li><p><strong>What are the hit-rates for terciles categories in seasonal forecasts for anomalies above/below normal?</strong></p></li>
 <li><p><strong>Can I use information from seasonal forecasts of monthly anomalies to make decisions?</strong></p></li>
@@ -490,6 +483,7 @@ <h1>Quality assessment questions<a class="headerlink" href="#quality-assessment-
 <p>A complementary aspect in describing the quality of seasonal forecasts is <strong>discrimination</strong>, which is the answer to the opposite question: do the forecasts differ when the outcome differ? As an example if, on average, a forecasting system issues always the same forecast, regardless of the expected outcome, there can be some <em>hits</em> in the forecast but, at the same time, the forecast would not be able to discriminate the occurrence of an event from a non-event. Discrimination is best measured by <strong>Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC)</strong> scores.</p>
 <p>As long as there is some resolution or discrimination, there is a potential to extract some valuable information from the forecasts.</p>
 <p>Indeed, the WMO <a class="reference external" href="https://library.wmo.int/records/item/56227-guidance-on-verification-of-operational-seasonal-climate-forecasts">Guidance on Verification of Operational Seasonal Climate Forecasts</a> highlights how the use of generalised methodologies for the assessment of seasonal forecasts sometimes represent limited attraction for new users. Therefore, the <a class="reference external" href="https://library.wmo.int/records/item/56227-guidance-on-verification-of-operational-seasonal-climate-forecasts">Guidance</a> recommends a range of methodologies of increasing complexity, including very simple ones like the hit-rate, which are particularly useful for introducing the potential value of seasonal forecasts to non-specialists.</p>
+</section>
 <section id="quality-assessment-statement">
 <h2>Quality assessment statement<a class="headerlink" href="#quality-assessment-statement" title="Link to this heading">#</a></h2>
 <div class="note admonition">
@@ -1309,9 +1303,8 @@ <h3>References<a class="headerlink" href="#references" title="Link to this headi
   </div>
   <nav class="bd-toc-nav page-toc">
     <ul class="visible nav section-nav flex-column">
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications</a></li>
-<li class="toc-h1 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-questions">Quality assessment questions</a><ul class="visible nav section-nav flex-column">
+<li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#use-case-a-national-hydro-met-services-informing-decisions-in-agricultural-or-energy-applications">Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications</a></li>
+<li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-questions">Quality assessment questions</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#quality-assessment-statement">Quality assessment statement</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#methodology">Methodology</a></li>
 <li class="toc-h2 nav-item toc-entry"><a class="reference internal nav-link" href="#analysis-and-results">Analysis and results</a><ul class="nav section-nav flex-column">
@@ -1345,9 +1338,6 @@ <h3>References<a class="headerlink" href="#references" title="Link to this headi
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_sources/Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.ipynb

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+   "id": "286c9f0a",
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@@ -1119,7 +1119,7 @@
    "name": "python",
    "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
    "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.11.9"
+   "version": "3.11.8"
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_sources/Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.ipynb

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@
  "cells": [
   {
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-   "id": "1d7d7e0c",
+   "id": "de9074ff",
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@@ -23,10 +23,10 @@
     "\n",
     "Produced by: Sandro Calmanti (ENEA), Alessandro Dell'Aquila (ENEA)\n",
     "\n",
-    "# Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications\n",
+    "## Use case: a national hydro-met services informing decisions in agricultural or energy applications\n",
     "\n",
     "\n",
-    "# Quality assessment questions\n",
+    "## Quality assessment questions\n",
     "* **What are the hit-rates for terciles categories in seasonal forecasts for anomalies above/below normal?** \n",
     "* **Can I use information from seasonal forecasts of monthly anomalies to make decisions?**"
    ]
@@ -1101,7 +1101,7 @@
    "name": "python",
    "nbconvert_exporter": "python",
    "pygments_lexer": "ipython3",
-   "version": "3.11.9"
+   "version": "3.11.8"
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genindex.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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-
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intro.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
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search.html

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 <li class="toctree-l1 has-children"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal.html">Quality assessments for Seasonal Forecasts</a><details><summary><span class="toctree-toggle" role="presentation"><i class="fa-solid fa-chevron-down"></i></span></summary><ul>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q02.html">Seasonal forecasts bias assessment for impact models</a></li>
 <li class="toctree-l2"><a class="reference internal" href="Seasonal_Forecasts/seasonal_seasonal-monthly-single-levels_forecast-skill_q04.html">Evaluation of the hit-rate of seasonal forecasts for tercile categories of monthly anomalies</a></li>
-
-
 </ul>
 </details></li>
 </ul>